PSG tries to remain perfect under Ancelotti

Soccer Betting Lines

02/03/2012 - Paris, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carlo Ancelotti is perfect in four matches in charge of PSG and the rebuilt French club hosts Evian on Saturday in search of their sixth in their last seven games overall.

With more than $100 million spent on transfers last summer, and reinforcements added this winter in Brazilians Alex, Maxwell and Thiago Motta, Ancelotti will have enough firepower to remain atop Ligue 1.

Ancelotti, who spent his three previous managerial stints at Chelsea, AC Milan and Juventus, remains cautious because "our main rivals are Montpellier, but I am wary of Marseille, who have so much quality and experience."

PSG leads second-place Montpellier by three points, while Marseille sits nine points off the pace in fifth place.

But even with his new side off to a great start, Ancelotti realizes a lot can happen in the last 17 matches of the season.

"Everything is going well. I have a squad of young and motivated players who treat me with respect, without doubt because I have won lots of titles," said Ancelotti.

"But I still want to improve my relationship with the players. I like to speak with the players, enjoy myself with them sometimes. In football, there is a time to concentrate on work and a time when you need to relax."

Evian sits mid-table, but just four points above the drop zone as it looks for its first road win of the season at the Parc des Princes.

Montpellier is also at home Saturday against Brest, while surging Ajaccio will try to make it five straight wins when it hosts Nice.

In Saturday's other matches, Dijon hosts Valenciennes, Nancy hosts Rennes, St Etienne hosts Lorient, and Bordeaux hosts Toulouse. Due to severe weather, the times for many of the matches have been adjusted, and some could be postponed.

Marseille has six wins during a seven-game undefeated run ahead of its Olympic clash with Lyon on Sunday. Lyon sits one point ahead of Marseille in fourth.

Although PSG has established itself atop the table, Lyon coach Remi Garde will not concede the title.

"There are several teams that can win the title but I don't think any one side really stands out," he said. "I don't hide my desire to one day win the French title.

"We want to go all the way and I hope we will be competing for the title right down to the wire."

Caen hosts Auxerre, and Sochaux hosts defending champion and third-place Lille in Sunday's other matches, which are also in danger of being postponed due to the extreme cold blanketing Europe.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.