Mine That Bird works with eye toward Travers

Horseracing Betting Lines

08/25/2009 - Saratoga Springs, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - One week after undergoing successful throat surgery, Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird worked six-furlongs Tuesday morning at Saratoga Race Course. A final decision on his entry into the $1 million Travers Stakes is expected on Wednesday.

"Doc (Dr. James Hunt) is happy with the way he looked today," said trainer Chip Woolley. "He'll look at it again in the morning, and we'll make a final decision in the morning. If we irritated his throat today, and it looks bad, we won't run him. If he's not irritated in the morning, you have to feel like he's doing OK. It's just that simple. We're not going to take chances with him. If we see something in there we don't like, we're not going to run."

The three-year-old gelding had throat surgery last Tuesday for an entrapped epiglottis. Dr. Patricia Hogan performed the surgery at the Ruffian Equine Medical Center located across the street from Belmont Park.

Jockey Jamie Theriot was aboard for Tuesday's work. He was timed for a half- mile in 49.76, five-furlongs in 1:01 4/5, and finished six-furlongs in 1:14.80.

"His work was pretty nice, we couldn't ask for much more right now," said Woolley. "He looked really strong and the numbers show he's striding right on out past the wire. That part of it I have no problem with, we just don't want to do anything with him that might be detrimental down the road, long-term. He's got to come first.

"He's galloped strong, but this is the first time we put the hammer down on him and let him stress. We have to make sure he's 100-percent. He's too important to us and too important to the racing community right now."

Owned by Dr. Leonard Bloch and Mark Allen, who were both looking on Tuesday morning, Mine That Bird was a 50-1 longshot when he won the Kentucky Derby. Two weeks later he was second in the Preakness Stakes to the filly Rachel Alexandra and was third to Summer Bird in the Belmont Stakes.

Mine That Bird, 2008 Canadian champion two-year-old, has earned $1,892,200 with one win in six starts in 2009.

Rachel Alexandra will not start in the Travers, instead she will take on older handicap horses the following week at Saratoga in the $750,000 Woodward Stakes. The Woodward is 1 1/8 miles while the Travers is run at 1 1/4 miles.

Summer Bird is expected to be in the Travers along with Florida Derby winner Quality Road and Jim Dandy champ Kensei. The field for the Mid-Summer Derby will be drawn on Wednesday.

Should Mine That Bird not go in the Travers, Woolley said the gelding will not start in the $1 million Pennsylvania Derby at Philadelphia Park on Labor Day. Mine That Bird is scheduled to lead the post parade for the $2 million All America Futurity at Ruidoso Downs in New Mexico on Labor Day.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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