Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
07/09/2010 - Clarksburg, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kevin Chappell shot an eight-under 63 to remain in the lead Friday at the Ford Wayne Gretzky Classic, setting the Nationwide Tour's 36-hole scoring record in the process.
Chappell finished two rounds at 19-under 124, breaking the old record of 125 by a shot. His 19-under total also matched the tour record for most strokes under par after two rounds.
"I've played some good golf this year and I knew it was coming," said Chappell.
Keegan Bradley was on a 59 watch after playing his first 15 holes at 10-under, but he finished with three consecutive pars to shoot a 61 and break the course record at the Georgian Bay Club by one stroke.
Bradley moved to 16-under 127, three strokes behind Chappell, who also played the Georgian Bay course on Friday.
David Branshaw had an eight-under 64 at Raven Golf Club to move into third place at 13-under 130, while 2008 champion Justin Hicks (68) led three players tied at 11-under 132.
Both courses were used for the 36-hole pro-am on Thursday and Friday, but only the Georgian Bay Club will be used for the final two rounds.
That's unfortunate for Chappell. As well as he played at Georgian Bay on Friday -- he had eight birdies and 10 pars -- Chappell was even better during his first round on the Raven course.
He opened with a 61 there on Thursday, tying the course record on his 24th birthday.
How good has he been so far? Chappell has made more birdies (19) than pars (17) and is already just one stroke behind last year's winning score.
"For me the goal was to not make a bogey. That's always my Achilles' heel," he said. "I always make plenty of birdies and I knew if I could keep the blemishes off the card, things would take care of themselves."
Chappell broke the old 36-hole scoring record shared by Jason Gore and Webb Simpson. He is trying to become the first two-time winner on tour this season, having already captured the Fresh Express Classic in April.
"The lower you get, the harder it is to keep shooting lower because you've got to hit it closer to the hole," he said. "It's strictly the odds -- the further you are away from the hole the less you have a chance of making it."
Bradley has also played his first two rounds without a bogey as he chases his first career victory.
"It's definitely one of the best rounds I've ever had," said Bradley, who also carded a 61 in this year's BMW Charity Pro-Am. "The putter got extremely hot. From about number seven to 15 the hole looked as big as a trash can."
NOTES: The cut fell at six-under 137...137 matched the lowest score for a cut in tour history...Bobby Gates (67) and James Hahn (69) shared fourth place with Hicks...Chappell also set the 36-hole tournament scoring record...The previous mark of 130 was held by 2009 champion Roger Tambellini...Bradley bested the 62 shot by Garrett Osborn at Georgian Bay in 2008.
<< Former Brewers OF Jenkins retires
Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Outfielder Geoff Jenkins officially
announced his retirement as a Milwaukee Brewer on Friday.
The 35-year-old Jenkins spent 10 of his 11 big league seasons with the Brewers
before joining Philadelp
<< McMurray grabs third pole of the season at Chicagoland
Joliet, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jamie McMurray picked up his Sprint Cup Series
leading third pole of the season after topping the charts in Friday's
qualifying for the LifeLock.com 400 at Chicagoland Speedway.
McMurray turned in a l
<< Report: Bulls add Korver with three-year deal
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Bulls are apparently still players
in the free agent market, reportedly signing sharpshooter Kyle Korver to a
three-year, $15 million contract.
The signing, as per the Chicago Tribune, comes
<< Clippers sign free agent Brian Cook
LOS ANGELES (AP) -The Los Angeles Clippers have signed free agent forward Brian Cook, bringing him back to the city where he began his NBA career with the Lakers.The deal was announced Friday, a day after the Clippers signed free agents Randy Foye a
More power from Dunn paces Nats over Giants >>
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Adam Dunn hit a pair of homers and knocked
in three, and Stephen Strasburg threw six solid innings, as the Washington
Nationals earned a 8-1 decision over the San Francisco Giants in the opener of
a three
Howard's HR in 10th caps incredible comeback win for Phillies >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ryan Howard's two-run homer in the 10th
gave the Phillies a miraculous 9-7 win over the Reds after they used a pair
of unlikely homers in a six-run ninth to take the game to extra innings.
Cincinnati
Nix leads Indians past Rays >>
St. Petersburg, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jayson Nix continued his torrid pace
with his sixth home run in seven games, and the Cleveland Indians beat the
Tampa Bay Rays, 9-3, to even a four-game series at Tropicana Field.
Nix, who hit
Cabrera, Infante hit back-to-back HRs as Braves top Mets >>
Flushing, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Melky Cabrera and Omar Infante clubbed back-
to-back home runs with two outs in the top of the seventh inning, and the
Atlanta Braves beat the New York Mets, 4-2, in the opener of a critical three-
game se
Sportsbooks that take credit cards are not always easy to come by....Everything from credit card companies denying gambling transactions to the fear of chargebacks by customers has slowed down sportsbook credit card transactions by a high percentage.
There are however still sportsbooks that take credit cards.
When using your credit card it is highly recommended that you try either: MySportsbook.com or Sportsbooks.com. Both sportsbooks have a high rate of accepting credit cards and will save you the time and hassle of looking around the web to make a credit card transaction.
Furthermore, Sportsbooks.com is one of the oldest sportsbooks on the web and Sportsbook offers security in that they are the biggest online sportsbook in the world! Publicly traded on the London Stock Exchange, they are ROCK SOLID!
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting