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10/18/2007 - Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 70th running of the $2 million Canadian International has attracted a field of 12 turf runners and the $1 million E.P. Taylor Stakes has a field of 10 fillies and mares set to compete on the grass Sunday afternoon at Woodbine.
The 3-1 morning-line favorite for the International is Quijano of Germany. The five-year-old will be ridden by Andrasch Starke from the far outside post. Trained by Peter Schiergen, Quijano has won 12 of 15 lifetime races, including a win in his last start on September 2.
Local runner Sky Conqueror is the 4-1 second choice in the program. Sky Conqueror won the 2006 Sovereign Award as Canada's champion turf horse. Javier Castellano comes north to ride the five-year-old from post four.
Trained by Darwin Banach for owner Bill Sorokolit, Sky Conqueror has earned more than $1.8 million in 19 career starts win seven victories. He is a two- time winner of the Northern Dancer Stakes here and was third in last year's International.
"We might be in a position where he will be overlooked after finishing third in the Nijinsky (Stakes, August 26) and then eighth in the Mile," said Banach. "It's a different role for him to be in. Usually, everyone is thinking about his late kick and when he'll come charging. But he's not the type you want to overlook for a minute."
Ask, trained by Sir Michael Stoute, is the 6-1 third pick in the morning-line and will break from post nine with jockey Ryan Moore. The four-year-old has won both of his starts this year and can give his trainer another win in this event. Stoute won here in 1996 with Singspiel.
Here is the complete field for the 1 1/2 mile race in post position order: Marsh Side, Emma-Jayne Wilson; Oracle West, John Murtagh; Windward Islands, Todd Kabel; Sky Conqueror, Javier Castellano; Stream of Gold, Eddie Castro; Irish Wells, Olivier Peslier; Honolulu, Michael Kinane; Cloudy's Knight, Ramsey Zimmerman; Ask, Ryan Moore; Linda's Lad, John Velazquez; Sunriver, Garrett Gomez and Quijano, Andrasch Starke.
The field for 1 1/4 mile E.P. Taylor Stakes is topped by three-year-old Sealy Hill. The filly swept the Canadian Triple Tiara for three-year-old females.
Sealy Hill is owned by Melnyk Racing and trained by Mark Casse. She won the Woodbine Oaks, Bison City Stakes and the Wonder Where Stakes. Initially she was disqualified to third in the Bison City. An appeal hearing reversed the disqualification to give her the Triple Tiara.
Sealy Hill will start from post three in the ten horse field with Patrick Husbands again in the saddle. In her last start, Sealy hill was second to Essential Edge in the Canadian Stakes at Woodbine.
Essential Edge will break from post eight with Jono Jones riding. Owned by Chiefswood Stable, the four-year-old has earned nearly $500,000.
Here is the complete field for the $1 million Taylor Stakes: Elle Runaway, Eddie Castro; The Niagara Queen, Emma-Jayne Wilson; Sealy Hill, Patrick Husbands; Mrs. Lindsay, John Murtagh; Four Sins, Michael Kinane; Sans Souci Island, Mike Smith; Safari Queen, John Velazquez; Essential Edge, Jono Jones; Hostess, Channing Hill and Barancella, Javier Castellano.
The E.P Taylor Stakes has a scheduled post-time of 2:59 p.m. (et) and the Canadian International is set for 4:05 p.m.
<< Kidd's MRI confirms strained lower back
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New Jersey Nets guard Jason Kidd
underwent an MRI Thursday that confirmed a strained lower back.
After the MRI, Kidd was administered an epidural to help reduce inflammation
surrounding the dis
<< Panthers' Delhomme undergoes surgery
Charlotte, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carolina Panthers quarterback Jake Delhomme
underwent successful surgery on his right elbow Thursday at Carolinas Medical
Center.
The surgery lasted approximately 90 minutes and was performed by Dr.
<< Biancone horses to be trained by Francois Parisel
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The seven thoroughbreds trained by suspended
conditioner Patrick Biancone that have been pre-entered for this year's
Breeders' Cup races have been transferred to Francois Parisel. The transfer
request
<< Keep an eye on Minnesota's Jefferson
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 2007-08 NBA season figures to offer fans of host of
unique and entertaining storylines for all fans of the league.
During the offseason, there was a blockbuster trade that could
change the standings in the Eastern Conf
Henin strolls into Zurich QFs >>
Zurich, Switzerland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - World No. 1 star Justine Henin
was an easy second-round winner Thursday at the $1.34 million Zurich Open.
The reigning U.S. and French Open titlist Henin drilled Russian Vera Zvonareva
6-3, 6-1
Torre walks away from Yankees >>
Tampa, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Joe Torre has turned down an offer to return as
manager of the New York Yankees in 2008.
Torre was offered a one-year deal for $5 million with the option of earning an
additional $1 million for each playoff ser
Missouri's Butterfield suspended indefinitely after arrest >>
Columbia, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The University of Missouri has suspended
senior forward Darryl Butterfield from the men's basketball team indefinitely
after he was reportedly arrested Tuesday night.
According to the Columbia Tribune,
Broncos place TE Alexander on IR >>
Englewood, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Denver Broncos placed veteran tight end
Stephen Alexander on injured reserve with a lower left leg injury Thursday.
To replace Alexander on the roster, the Broncos signed tight end Chad Mustard.
A fourt
The Indianapolis Colts know that winning the Super Bowl last season put a huge target on their backs, and they expect opponents to go all-out to knock them from the top of the mountain.
They’ll get their first test from the New Orleans Saints this Thursday night. The defending champs had nothing but good things to say about the New Orleans defense this past week, praising their opponents’ pass rush and run-stopping abilities.
"They play very aggressively," head coach Tony Dungy told the New Orleans Times-Picayune. "They play a lot of man-to-man coverage, and they come after you. They have good pass rushers, and they're going to try to pressure us, I'm sure."
Both center Jeff Saturday and quarterback Peyton Manning gave New Orleans’ front four props, admitting keeping guys like Will Smithand Charles Grant contained would be a tall task for the offensive line.
New Orleans ranked second in total defense during the preseason at a sportsbook, allowing just under 233 yards per game. Last season, the defense finished 11th in the league after giving up 307.3 yards and 20.1 points per contest.
Not so sound on the ground
If Indianapolis' efficient offense has a weakness it has to be its running attack. The Colts one-two-punch of Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai is no longer, leaving the bulk of the carries to Addai, the second-year back out of LSU.
Former Saskatchewan Roughrider Kenton Keith was named Addai’s backup this week after beating out DeDe Dorsey for the second-string position. Indy has only three backs on the roster right now, including fullback Luke Lawton, and coach Dungy is aware of the thinness of his ground game. Sports Betting lines on the game can be found at BettingExpress.com
“We’ll continue to look. Luke Lawton’s done a good job for us too. So probably getting a third true tailback is something that we’d like to do,” Dungy told the Indiana Tribune-Star.
Last season, Addai rushed for over 1,000 yards in his rookie campaign and scored seven touchdowns on the ground.
Brees says bring it on
Opening the season on the road against the defending Super Bowl champions is not the way most teams would like to kick off their year – unless you’re the New Orleans Saints or their quarterback Drew Brees. This internet Sportsbooks had the Saints as the favorites.
Brees told the New Orleans Times-Picayune that he is excited to get the regular season started and the Colts are a great challenge for him and his teammates. The 28-year-old QB, entering his second season with the Saints, is expecting a wild environment in the RCA Dome this Thursday when the franchise celebrates its 2007-2007 championship.
Brees said he sees the opening game scheduling as an honor and a testament to how well New Orleans did last season. The Saints missed facing the Colts in the Super Bowl by one game, losing to the Chicago Bearsin the NFC Championship game.
"I mean, people think we can hang with these guys," Brees told reporters. "Even if they didn't, it wouldn't matter what they thought because as a team we're very confident. We know what we can do. We're not satisfied where we finished the season last year. And we've been looking forward to this opportunity for a long time."
SportsBooks ready for a shootout
Oddsmakers are preparing for some fireworks this Thursday when the NFL season kicks off. online Sportsbooks have Thursday’s total set at a whopping 52 points, accounting for two of the league’s most explosive offenses.
“This is like must-see TV,” Saints cornerback and former Colt Jason David told the Baton Rouge Advocate. “It’s two exciting offenses with great players. You’ve got a lot of star power on offense. At any given time a big play can happen. If I was a fan, I wouldn’t miss a snap.”
New Orleans, who ranked No.1 in total offense last season, can go blow-for-blow with the Colts’ attack. Head coach Sean Payton’s offensive schemes will get even better production out of Drew Brees, Reggie Bush and receiver Marques Colston now that they’ve each had a season of playing together under their belts.
The Saints and Colts were the top two passing teams in the NFL last year, but while Indianapolis managed to put up almost 27 points per game, New Orleans struggled to capitalize on their efforts. The Saints ranked fifth in points per game.
“Yards are great,” running backDeuce McAllister told reporters, “but to be able to score more touchdowns would be important for us.”
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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